64.8% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -35.1 pts to -31.1 pts | 1.2% |
| -27.1 pts to -23.2 pts | 3.5% |
| -19.2 pts to -15.2 pts | 7.9% |
| -11.3 pts to -7.3 pts | 13.7% |
| -3.3 pts | 8.9% |
| 0.7 pts to 4.6 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 8.6 pts to 12.6 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 16.6 pts to 20.5 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 24.5 pts to 28.5 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 32.5 pts to 36.4 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 40.4 pts to 44.4 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
Live model read · NY-02 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 51% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +16.3 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +4.6 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±20.4 pts of it.MethodologyVerify the mathStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Aug 26, 2026