64.8% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -37.3 pts to -32.7 pts | 1.2% |
| -28.2 pts to -23.6 pts | 3.5% |
| -19.1 pts to -14.5 pts | 7.9% |
| -9.9 pts to -5.4 pts | 13.7% |
| -0.8 pts | 8.9% |
| 3.7 pts to 8.3 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 12.9 pts to 17.4 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 22.0 pts to 26.5 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 31.1 pts to 35.7 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 40.2 pts to 44.8 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 49.3 pts to 53.9 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
Live model read · MT-01 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 57.8% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
D +8.3 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±23.4 pts of it.MethodologyVerify the mathGenerate worksheetUpdated Jul 12, 2026