64.8% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -40.4 pts to -35.4 pts | 1.2% |
| -30.5 pts to -25.5 pts | 3.5% |
| -20.5 pts to -15.6 pts | 7.9% |
| -10.6 pts to -5.7 pts | 13.7% |
| -0.7 pts | 8.9% |
| 4.3 pts to 9.2 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 14.2 pts to 19.1 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 24.1 pts to 29.0 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 34.0 pts to 39.0 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 43.9 pts to 48.9 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 53.8 pts to 58.8 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
Live model read · CA-40 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 55.6% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
D +9.2 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±25.4 pts of it.MethodologyVerify the mathGenerate worksheetUpdated Jul 12, 2026