Published · Updates are manual.
55.0% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -28.9 pts to -26.1 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -23.3 pts to -20.5 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -17.7 pts to -14.9 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -12.1 pts to -9.3 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -6.4 pts to -3.6 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -0.8 pts | 10.1% (short of Even) |
| 2.0 pts to 4.8 pts | 18.6% |
| 7.6 pts to 10.4 pts | 13.7% |
| 13.2 pts to 16.0 pts | 7.9% |
| 18.8 pts to 21.6 pts | 3.5% |
| 24.4 pts to 27.3 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · AZ-02 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 44.9% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +9.0 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +0.8 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026