Published · Updates are manual.
99.6% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -54.2 pts to -51.4 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -48.6 pts to -45.7 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -42.9 pts to -40.1 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -37.3 pts to -34.5 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -31.7 pts to -28.9 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -26.1 pts to -23.2 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -20.4 pts to -17.6 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -14.8 pts to -12.0 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| -9.2 pts to -6.4 pts | 5.4% (short of Even) |
| -3.5 pts to -0.7 pts | 2.2% (short of Even) |
| 2.1 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · WV-02 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 7.9% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +41.5 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +26.1 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026