Published · Updates are manual.
99.6% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -55.0 pts to -52.2 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -49.4 pts to -46.6 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -43.8 pts to -40.9 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -38.1 pts to -35.3 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -32.5 pts to -29.7 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -26.9 pts to -24.1 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -21.3 pts to -18.4 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -15.6 pts to -12.8 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| -10.0 pts to -7.2 pts | 5.4% (short of Even) |
| -4.4 pts to -1.6 pts | 2.2% (short of Even) |
| 1.2 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · WV-01 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 7.7% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +43.5 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +26.9 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026