Published · Updates are manual.
64.8% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -55.5 pts to -50.7 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -46.0 pts to -41.2 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -36.5 pts to -31.8 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -27.0 pts to -22.3 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -17.5 pts to -12.8 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -8.1 pts to -3.3 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| 1.4 pts to 6.2 pts | 16.5% |
| 10.9 pts to 15.6 pts | 10.7% |
| 20.4 pts to 25.1 pts | 5.4% |
| 29.8 pts to 34.6 pts | 2.2% |
| 39.3 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · WI-07 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 26.1% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +27.2 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +8.1 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±24.3 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026