Published · Updates are manual.
92.0% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -46.6 pts to -43.5 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -40.5 pts to -37.4 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -34.3 pts to -31.3 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -28.2 pts to -25.1 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -22.0 pts to -19.0 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -15.9 pts to -12.8 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -9.7 pts to -6.7 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -3.6 pts to -0.5 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| 2.6 pts to 5.6 pts | 5.4% |
| 8.7 pts to 11.8 pts | 2.2% |
| 14.9 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · WI-05 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 12.3% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +28.9 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +15.9 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±15.8 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026