Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 9.5 pts to 14.3 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 19.0 pts to 23.8 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 28.5 pts to 33.3 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 38.0 pts to 42.8 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 47.6 pts to 52.3 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 57.1 pts to 61.8 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 66.6 pts to 71.3 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 76.1 pts to 80.8 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 85.6 pts to 90.3 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 95.1 pts to 99.8 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 105 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · WI-04 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 96.7% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +53.9 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +57.1 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±24.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026