Published · Updates are manual.
55.0% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -30.3 pts to -27.4 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -24.6 pts to -21.8 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -19.0 pts to -16.2 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -13.4 pts to -10.6 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -7.8 pts to -5.0 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -2.2 pts | 10.1% (short of Even) |
| 0.6 pts to 3.5 pts | 18.6% |
| 6.3 pts to 9.1 pts | 13.7% |
| 11.9 pts to 14.7 pts | 7.9% |
| 17.5 pts to 20.3 pts | 3.5% |
| 23.1 pts to 25.9 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · WI-01 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 40.5% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +10.4 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +2.2 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026