Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 11.5 pts to 14.4 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 17.3 pts to 20.2 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 23.1 pts to 26.0 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 28.9 pts to 31.8 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 34.7 pts to 37.6 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 40.5 pts to 43.4 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 46.3 pts to 49.2 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 52.1 pts to 55.0 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 57.9 pts to 60.8 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 63.7 pts to 66.6 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 69.5 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · WA-10 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 91.7% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +17.3 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +40.5 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.9 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026