Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 26.6 pts to 30.0 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 33.3 pts to 36.6 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 39.9 pts to 43.2 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 46.5 pts to 49.8 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 53.2 pts to 56.5 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 59.8 pts to 63.1 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 66.4 pts to 69.7 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 73.1 pts to 76.4 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 79.7 pts to 83.0 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 86.3 pts to 89.6 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 92.9 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · WA-07 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 97% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +68.4 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +59.8 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±17.0 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026