Published · Updates are manual.
64.8% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -48.0 pts to -43.8 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -39.6 pts to -35.4 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -31.3 pts to -27.1 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -22.9 pts to -18.7 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -14.6 pts to -10.4 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -6.2 pts to -2.0 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| 2.1 pts to 6.3 pts | 16.5% |
| 10.5 pts to 14.7 pts | 10.7% |
| 18.8 pts to 23.0 pts | 5.4% |
| 27.2 pts to 31.4 pts | 2.2% |
| 35.5 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · WA-05 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 29.6% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +21.3 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +6.2 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±21.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026