Published · Updates are manual.
73.7% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -60.3 pts to -55.5 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -50.7 pts to -45.9 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -41.1 pts to -36.3 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -31.5 pts to -26.8 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -22.0 pts to -17.2 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -12.4 pts to -7.6 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -2.8 pts | 8.9% (short of Even) |
| 2.0 pts to 6.7 pts | 13.7% |
| 11.5 pts to 16.3 pts | 7.9% |
| 21.1 pts to 25.9 pts | 3.5% |
| 30.7 pts to 35.4 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · WA-04 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 16.8% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +100.0 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +12.4 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±24.5 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026