Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 19.2 pts to 22.2 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 25.2 pts to 28.1 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 31.1 pts to 34.1 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 37.1 pts to 40.1 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 43.1 pts to 46.0 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 49.0 pts to 52.0 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 55.0 pts to 58.0 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 60.9 pts to 63.9 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 66.9 pts to 69.9 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 72.9 pts to 75.8 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 78.8 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · WA-02 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 94.6% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +28.1 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +49.0 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±15.3 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026