Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 18.9 pts to 21.9 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 24.8 pts to 27.8 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 30.7 pts to 33.7 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 36.7 pts to 39.6 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 42.6 pts to 45.6 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 48.5 pts to 51.5 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 54.5 pts to 57.4 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 60.4 pts to 63.3 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 66.3 pts to 69.3 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 72.2 pts to 75.2 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 78.2 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · WA-01 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 94.3% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +26.3 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +48.5 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±15.2 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026