Published · Updates are manual.
55.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -245 pts to -218 pts | 1.2% |
| -191 pts to -164 pts | 3.5% |
| -136 pts to -109 pts | 7.9% |
| -82.1 pts to -54.9 pts | 13.7% |
| -27.8 pts to -0.6 pts | 18.6% |
| 26.5 pts to 53.7 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 80.8 pts to 108 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 135 pts to 162 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 189 pts to 217 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 244 pts to 271 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 298 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · VA-10 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 64.3% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +4.6 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +26.5 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±139.2 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026