Published · Updates are manual.
55.0% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -291 pts to -264 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -236 pts to -209 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -182 pts to -154 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -127 pts to -99.4 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -72.0 pts to -44.6 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -17.2 pts | 10.1% (short of Even) |
| 10.2 pts to 37.7 pts | 18.6% |
| 65.1 pts to 92.5 pts | 13.7% |
| 120 pts to 147 pts | 7.9% |
| 175 pts to 202 pts | 3.5% |
| 229 pts to 257 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · VA-09 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 30.4% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +45.2 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +17.2 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±140.5 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026