Published · Updates are manual.
73.7% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -214 pts to -187 pts | 1.2% |
| -160 pts to -133 pts | 3.5% |
| -105 pts to -78.1 pts | 7.9% |
| -50.8 pts to -23.5 pts | 13.7% |
| 3.7 pts to 31.0 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 58.3 pts to 85.5 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 113 pts to 140 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 167 pts to 195 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 222 pts to 249 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 276 pts to 304 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 331 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · VA-08 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 83.6% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +48.7 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +58.3 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±139.8 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026