Published · Updates are manual.
55.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -248 pts to -220 pts | 1.2% |
| -193 pts to -166 pts | 3.5% |
| -139 pts to -112 pts | 7.9% |
| -84.6 pts to -57.5 pts | 13.7% |
| -30.3 pts to -3.2 pts | 18.6% |
| 24.0 pts to 51.1 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 78.3 pts to 105 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 133 pts to 160 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 187 pts to 214 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 241 pts to 268 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 296 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · VA-07 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 62.3% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +2.6 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +24.0 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±139.2 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026