Published · Updates are manual.
55.0% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -285 pts to -257 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -230 pts to -203 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -176 pts to -148 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -121 pts to -93.8 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -66.5 pts to -39.2 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -12.0 pts | 10.1% (short of Even) |
| 15.3 pts to 42.6 pts | 18.6% |
| 69.8 pts to 97.1 pts | 13.7% |
| 124 pts to 152 pts | 7.9% |
| 179 pts to 206 pts | 3.5% |
| 233 pts to 261 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · VA-06 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 34.3% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +28.9 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +12.0 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±139.8 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026