Published · Updates are manual.
55.0% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -274 pts to -247 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -220 pts to -193 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -166 pts to -138 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -111 pts to -84.1 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -56.9 pts to -29.8 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -2.6 pts | 10.1% (short of Even) |
| 24.6 pts to 51.7 pts | 18.6% |
| 78.9 pts to 106 pts | 13.7% |
| 133 pts to 160 pts | 7.9% |
| 188 pts to 215 pts | 3.5% |
| 242 pts to 269 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · VA-05 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 42.5% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +15.1 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +2.6 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±139.3 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026