Published · Updates are manual.
64.8% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -218 pts to -191 pts | 1.2% |
| -164 pts to -137 pts | 3.5% |
| -110 pts to -82.3 pts | 7.9% |
| -55.1 pts to -27.9 pts | 13.7% |
| -0.7 pts | 8.9% |
| 26.6 pts to 53.8 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 81.0 pts to 108 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 135 pts to 163 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 190 pts to 217 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 244 pts to 272 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 299 pts to 326 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · VA-04 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 81.7% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +35.0 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +53.8 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±139.5 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026