Published · Updates are manual.
73.7% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -217 pts to -189 pts | 1.2% |
| -162 pts to -135 pts | 3.5% |
| -108 pts to -80.4 pts | 7.9% |
| -53.1 pts to -25.9 pts | 13.7% |
| 1.3 pts to 28.6 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 55.8 pts to 83.1 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 110 pts to 138 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 165 pts to 192 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 219 pts to 247 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 274 pts to 301 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 328 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · VA-03 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 82.6% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +40.2 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +55.8 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±139.6 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026