Published · Updates are manual.
92.0% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -44.2 pts to -41.4 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -38.6 pts to -35.7 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -32.9 pts to -30.1 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -27.3 pts to -24.5 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -21.7 pts to -18.9 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -16.1 pts to -13.2 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -10.4 pts to -7.6 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -4.8 pts to -2.0 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| 0.8 pts to 3.6 pts | 5.4% |
| 6.4 pts to 9.3 pts | 2.2% |
| 12.1 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · UT-02 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 12.5% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +25.8 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +16.1 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026