Published · Updates are manual.
81.2% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -51.0 pts to -47.2 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -43.4 pts to -39.6 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -35.8 pts to -32.0 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -28.2 pts to -24.4 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -20.6 pts to -16.8 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -13.0 pts to -9.2 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -5.5 pts to -1.7 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| 2.1 pts to 5.9 pts | 10.7% |
| 9.7 pts to 13.5 pts | 5.4% |
| 17.3 pts to 21.1 pts | 2.2% |
| 24.9 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · TX-38 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 17.9% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +25.5 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +13.0 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±19.5 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026