Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 3.1 pts to 7.9 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 12.6 pts to 17.4 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 22.2 pts to 27.0 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 31.8 pts to 36.6 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 41.4 pts to 46.1 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 50.9 pts to 55.7 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 60.5 pts to 65.3 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 70.1 pts to 74.9 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 79.6 pts to 84.4 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 89.2 pts to 94.0 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 98.8 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · TX-37 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 96.6% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +51.8 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +50.9 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±24.5 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026