Published · Updates are manual.
98.8% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -55.6 pts to -52.6 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -49.5 pts to -46.5 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -43.4 pts to -40.4 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -37.3 pts to -34.3 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -31.2 pts to -28.2 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -25.1 pts to -22.1 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -19.0 pts to -16.0 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -12.9 pts to -9.8 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| -6.8 pts to -3.7 pts | 5.4% (short of Even) |
| -0.7 pts | 1.4% (short of Even) |
| 2.4 pts | 0.8% |
| 5.4 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · TX-36 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 8.4% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +38.7 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +25.1 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±15.7 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026