Published · Updates are manual.
99.6% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -1.5 pts | 0.4% |
| 3.3 pts to 8.1 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 12.8 pts to 17.6 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 22.4 pts to 27.2 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 32.0 pts to 36.8 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 41.6 pts to 46.3 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 51.1 pts to 55.9 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 60.7 pts to 65.5 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 70.3 pts to 75.0 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 79.8 pts to 84.6 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 89.4 pts to 94.2 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · TX-35 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 95.5% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +34.7 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +46.3 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±24.5 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026