Published · Updates are manual.
99.6% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -0.4 pts | 0.4% |
| 4.4 pts to 9.2 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 14.0 pts to 18.7 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 23.5 pts to 28.3 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 33.1 pts to 37.9 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 42.7 pts to 47.5 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 52.2 pts to 57.0 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 61.8 pts to 66.6 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 71.4 pts to 76.2 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 80.9 pts to 85.7 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 90.5 pts to 95.3 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · TX-33 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 95.8% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +37.6 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +47.5 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±24.5 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026