Published · Updates are manual.
98.8% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -7.8 pts | 0.4% |
| -3.0 pts | 0.8% |
| 1.8 pts to 6.6 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 11.3 pts to 16.1 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 20.9 pts to 25.7 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 30.5 pts to 35.3 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 40.1 pts to 44.8 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 49.6 pts to 54.4 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 59.2 pts to 64.0 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 68.8 pts to 73.6 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 78.3 pts to 83.1 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 87.9 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · TX-32 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 93.6% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +24.1 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +40.1 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±24.5 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026