Published · Updates are manual.
99.6% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -1.7 pts | 0.4% |
| 3.1 pts to 7.8 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 12.6 pts to 17.3 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 22.1 pts to 26.8 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 31.6 pts to 36.3 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 41.1 pts to 45.8 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 50.6 pts to 55.3 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 60.1 pts to 64.8 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 69.6 pts to 74.3 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 79.1 pts to 83.9 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 88.6 pts to 93.4 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · TX-29 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 95% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +30.6 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +45.8 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±24.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026