Published · Updates are manual.
97.4% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -7.7 pts to -4.7 pts | 1.2% |
| -1.7 pts | 1.4% |
| 1.2 pts to 4.2 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 7.2 pts to 10.2 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 13.2 pts to 16.2 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 19.2 pts to 22.2 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 25.2 pts to 28.1 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 31.1 pts to 34.1 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 37.1 pts to 40.1 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 43.1 pts to 46.1 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 49.1 pts to 52.1 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · TX-28 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 85.1% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +5.6 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +22.2 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±15.3 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026