Published · Updates are manual.
95.2% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -73.8 pts to -69.5 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -65.1 pts to -60.8 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -56.4 pts to -52.1 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -47.7 pts to -43.4 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -39.0 pts to -34.7 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -30.3 pts to -26.0 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -21.6 pts to -17.3 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -12.9 pts to -8.6 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| -4.2 pts | 3.3% (short of Even) |
| 0.1 pts to 4.5 pts | 3.5% |
| 8.8 pts to 13.2 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · TX-25 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 6.8% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +100.0 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +30.3 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±22.3 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026