Published · Updates are manual.
92.0% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -44.7 pts to -41.9 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -39.0 pts to -36.2 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -33.3 pts to -30.5 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -27.7 pts to -24.8 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -22.0 pts to -19.2 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -16.3 pts to -13.5 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -10.7 pts to -7.8 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -5.0 pts to -2.2 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| 0.7 pts to 3.5 pts | 5.4% |
| 6.3 pts to 9.2 pts | 2.2% |
| 12.0 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · TX-24 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 14.4% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +20.6 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +16.3 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.5 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026