Published · Updates are manual.
73.7% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -55.7 pts to -51.3 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -46.9 pts to -42.5 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -38.1 pts to -33.7 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -29.3 pts to -25.0 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -20.6 pts to -16.2 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -11.8 pts to -7.4 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -3.0 pts | 8.9% (short of Even) |
| 1.4 pts to 5.8 pts | 13.7% |
| 10.2 pts to 14.6 pts | 7.9% |
| 19.0 pts to 23.4 pts | 3.5% |
| 27.8 pts to 32.2 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · TX-23 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 21.5% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +24.6 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics · R +2.0 pts PPP poll, 2026-03-11 · PPP
R +11.8 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±22.5 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026