Published · Updates are manual.
81.2% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -49.4 pts to -45.7 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -42.0 pts to -38.3 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -34.6 pts to -30.9 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -27.2 pts to -23.5 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -19.8 pts to -16.1 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -12.4 pts to -8.7 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -5.0 pts to -1.3 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| 2.5 pts to 6.2 pts | 10.7% |
| 9.9 pts to 13.6 pts | 5.4% |
| 17.3 pts to 21.0 pts | 2.2% |
| 24.7 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · TX-22 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 18.7% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +24.2 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +12.4 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±19.0 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026