Published · Updates are manual.
81.2% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -51.9 pts to -48.0 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -44.2 pts to -40.3 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -36.5 pts to -32.6 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -28.7 pts to -24.9 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -21.0 pts to -17.2 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -13.3 pts to -9.4 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -5.6 pts to -1.7 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| 2.1 pts to 6.0 pts | 10.7% |
| 9.9 pts to 13.7 pts | 5.4% |
| 17.6 pts to 21.4 pts | 2.2% |
| 25.3 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · TX-21 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 17.6% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +26.3 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +13.3 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±19.8 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026