Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 11.2 pts to 16.0 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 20.7 pts to 25.5 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 30.2 pts to 35.0 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 39.7 pts to 44.5 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 49.2 pts to 54.0 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 58.7 pts to 63.5 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 68.2 pts to 73.0 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 77.7 pts to 82.5 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 87.2 pts to 92.0 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 96.7 pts to 101 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 106 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · TX-20 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 97.1% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +100.0 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +58.7 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±24.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026