Published · Updates are manual.
87.3% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -71.5 pts to -66.7 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -61.9 pts to -57.1 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -52.3 pts to -47.6 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -42.8 pts to -38.0 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -33.2 pts to -28.4 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -23.6 pts to -18.9 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -14.1 pts to -9.3 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -4.5 pts | 6.1% (short of Even) |
| 0.3 pts to 5.1 pts | 7.9% |
| 9.9 pts to 14.6 pts | 3.5% |
| 19.4 pts to 24.2 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · TX-19 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 8.9% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +100.0 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +23.6 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±24.5 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026