Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 0.7 pts to 5.5 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 10.2 pts to 15.0 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 19.7 pts to 24.5 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 29.2 pts to 34.0 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 38.7 pts to 43.5 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 48.2 pts to 53.0 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 57.7 pts to 62.5 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 67.2 pts to 72.0 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 76.8 pts to 81.5 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 86.3 pts to 91.0 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 95.8 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · TX-18 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 95.7% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +38.9 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +48.2 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±24.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026