Published · Updates are manual.
99.6% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -0.9 pts | 0.4% |
| 2.9 pts to 6.8 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 10.6 pts to 14.4 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 18.3 pts to 22.1 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 25.9 pts to 29.7 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 33.6 pts to 37.4 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 41.2 pts to 45.1 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 48.9 pts to 52.7 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 56.6 pts to 60.4 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 64.2 pts to 68.0 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 71.9 pts to 75.7 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · TX-16 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 92.3% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +19.1 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +37.4 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±19.6 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026