Published · Updates are manual.
97.4% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -49.5 pts to -46.6 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -43.7 pts to -40.8 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -37.9 pts to -35.0 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -32.1 pts to -29.2 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -26.3 pts to -23.4 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -20.5 pts to -17.6 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -14.7 pts to -11.8 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -8.9 pts to -6.0 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| -3.1 pts to -0.2 pts | 5.4% (short of Even) |
| 2.7 pts to 5.6 pts | 2.2% |
| 8.5 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · TX-12 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 11.2% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +26.9 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +20.5 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.9 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026