Published · Updates are manual.
81.2% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -57.1 pts to -52.9 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -48.7 pts to -44.6 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -40.4 pts to -36.2 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -32.0 pts to -27.8 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -23.7 pts to -19.5 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -15.3 pts to -11.1 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -7.0 pts to -2.8 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| 1.4 pts to 5.6 pts | 10.7% |
| 9.8 pts to 13.9 pts | 5.4% |
| 18.1 pts to 22.3 pts | 2.2% |
| 26.5 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · TX-10 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 15.7% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +30.3 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +15.3 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±21.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026