Published · Updates are manual.
99.6% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -2.2 pts | 0.4% |
| 2.0 pts to 6.3 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 10.5 pts to 14.8 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 19.0 pts to 23.2 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 27.5 pts to 31.7 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 36.0 pts to 40.2 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 44.4 pts to 48.7 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 52.9 pts to 57.2 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 61.4 pts to 65.7 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 69.9 pts to 74.1 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 78.4 pts to 82.6 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · TX-07 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 93.3% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +22.6 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +40.2 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±21.7 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026