Published · Updates are manual.
97.4% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -50.3 pts to -47.4 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -44.5 pts to -41.6 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -38.6 pts to -35.7 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -32.8 pts to -29.9 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -27.0 pts to -24.1 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -21.2 pts to -18.2 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -15.3 pts to -12.4 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -9.5 pts to -6.6 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| -3.7 pts to -0.8 pts | 5.4% (short of Even) |
| 2.2 pts to 5.1 pts | 2.2% |
| 8.0 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · TX-05 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 10.7% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +28.2 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +21.2 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.9 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026