Published · Updates are manual.
98.8% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -54.8 pts to -51.8 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -48.7 pts to -45.7 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -42.7 pts to -39.6 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -36.6 pts to -33.6 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -30.6 pts to -27.5 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -24.5 pts to -21.5 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -18.5 pts to -15.4 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -12.4 pts to -9.4 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| -6.3 pts to -3.3 pts | 5.4% (short of Even) |
| -0.3 pts | 1.4% (short of Even) |
| 2.7 pts | 0.8% |
| 5.8 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · TX-04 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 8.7% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +36.8 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +24.5 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±15.5 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026