Published · Updates are manual.
95.2% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -47.9 pts to -45.1 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -42.2 pts to -39.3 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -36.4 pts to -33.6 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -30.7 pts to -27.8 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -24.9 pts to -22.1 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -19.2 pts to -16.3 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -13.4 pts to -10.5 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -7.7 pts to -4.8 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| -1.9 pts | 3.3% (short of Even) |
| 1.0 pts to 3.8 pts | 3.5% |
| 6.7 pts to 9.6 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · TX-03 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 12% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +24.9 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +19.2 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.7 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026