Published · Updates are manual.
97.4% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -52.0 pts to -49.1 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -46.1 pts to -43.2 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -40.2 pts to -37.3 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -34.3 pts to -31.4 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -28.4 pts to -25.5 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -22.5 pts to -19.6 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -16.6 pts to -13.6 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -10.7 pts to -7.7 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| -4.8 pts to -1.8 pts | 5.4% (short of Even) |
| 1.1 pts to 4.1 pts | 2.2% |
| 7.0 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · TX-02 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 9.8% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +31.3 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +22.5 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±15.1 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026