Published · Updates are manual.
95.2% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -73.6 pts to -69.3 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -64.9 pts to -60.6 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -56.2 pts to -51.9 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -47.5 pts to -43.2 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -38.8 pts to -34.5 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -30.1 pts to -25.8 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -21.4 pts to -17.1 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -12.7 pts to -8.4 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| -4.1 pts | 3.3% (short of Even) |
| 0.3 pts to 4.6 pts | 3.5% |
| 9.0 pts to 13.3 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · TX-01 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 6.8% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +100.0 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +30.1 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±22.3 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026